Nairobi, Kenya

The Kenyan consumer price index (CPI) showed a marginal deceleration in annual inflation in November, offering a flicker of relief to policymakers but underscoring the persistent challenges faced by households grappling with high food and transport costs.

The headline inflation figure eased to 4.5 per cent in the twelve months to November 2025, a slight dip from the 4.6 per cent recorded in October, according to data released by the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS). The month-on-month figure also remained subdued, ticking up by a modest 0.2 per cent, as the overall CPI rose from 146.84 to 147.08.

Non-Core Volatility Dominates

Despite the overall easing, the underlying inflationary pressure remains acute, primarily driven by the volatility of non-core items. The KNBS report highlights that just three divisions—Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages, Transport, and Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and other fuels—collectively account for over 57 per cent of the total weight in the consumption basket, and all recorded substantial price increases over the year.

The Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages division experienced a sharp price surge of 7.7 per cent year-on-year, while Transport costs rose by 5.1 per cent. These two categories continue to be the primary impediments to re-anchoring consumer price expectations.

A granular analysis of commodity prices reveals the severity of the challenge at the dinner table:

• The cost of Tomatoes soared by 30.9 per cent.
• Carrots were up 22.1 per cent.
• Onions registered a 16.1 per cent increase.
• Sugar also remained elevated, increasing by 15.3 per cent over the year.

While the price of Fortified Maize flour—a political and economic bellwether commodity—was up 6.8 per cent annually, it saw a favourable month-on-month drop of 3.8 per cent, easing from KSh 168.56 to KSh 162.11 per two-kilogramme packet between October and November.

Utilities and Core Inflation

The Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and other fuels index recorded a 1.9 per cent increase year-on-year. This figure was tempered by recent shifts in utility pricing. Month-on-month, electricity charges for both 50 kWh and 200 kWh consumption levels saw a decline, indicating an easing of tariffs in the short term.

From a technical perspective, the overall inflation was driven by both core and non-core components. Core inflation—which excludes volatile food and energy prices—contributed 2.6 points to the overall rate. However, the commodity-sensitive non-core inflation was responsible for a substantial 1.8 points of the final 4.5 per cent figure, illustrating that while imported or administered prices are stabilising, the volatile components are keeping the pressure elevated.

Analysts expect the central bank to maintain a cautious stance, as the slight tapering in the headline figure is yet to translate into sustained and significant relief from the high cost of essential goods.

How Inflation Affects Your Money:

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Notes

• Source: Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS). The Kenya Consumer Price Index and Inflation Report, November 2025. Released 28th November 2025. https://www.knbs.or.ke/reports/consumer-price-indices-and-inflation-rates-november-2025/